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Renewable Energy Capability vs. Climate Necessity

Solar Heat and Power Pty, Ltd

A 450-ppm equivalent CO₂ target by 2050 is an often-proposed goal under a future global emissions agreement, but there is considerable high side risk in global-warming models due to cloud formation, feedbacks in dissolved organic carbon from peat bogs in polar regions, and unaccounted solar dimming by particulates. The 450-ppm figure is predicated on absorption of some CO₂ by oceans, but increasing acidification may dictate that CO₂ produced during the next 50 years may have to be reduced further to preserve species diversity in the oceans. By consideration of industry capability, a 400-ppm target is shown to be affordable and achievable by renewables using 2/3 direct solar electricity by 2050 with technology currently being proven, together with aggressive energy efficiency. Sequestration of liquid CO₂ under pressure in enormous continually excavated caverns at 2-km depth is technically much less certain and later in development.

Key Words: climate change • emission targets • solar electricity • climate model uncertainty • global warming • sequestration • solar cities

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